MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.
Services-Business Services, NEC · Deep Dive · researched Nov 2026 — score, value range and action plan are the researched record and never recomputed
Overview
$10,000 invested ~5 years ago → $12,897 in this stock vs $17,665 in the S&P 500 (SPY). End-of-day closes, dividends not reinvested.
Deep Dive: researched from primary SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, DEF 14A, Form 4) — the score and valuation above are the published research record. Market data around it refreshes daily.
The 100-point scorecard
The region's defining ecosystem; share still gaining at +40% growth; near-full marks.
Parent lightly levered with an IG curve; consolidated funding stack and rising net debt ($4.7B → $6.4B+) cost points.
The float mirage: adjusted FCF $158M in H1 2026; provisions +95%; honestly disclosed, currently poor.
Planned founder succession, single class, cash-settled expensed retention pay, candid letters.
No tricks found — the flag is structural: cohort seasoning opacity inside a book growing 62%/yr.
+45% revenue, Q4 capacity test, Mexico license binary ahead.
21% discount to the range midpoint but ~0–5% to the DCF; downside case is ~35% under the price.
Below every MA into a new 52-week low — partly redeemed by capitulation volume and the intact golden-cross structure.
Business
Business Quality & Moat
The region's defining ecosystem; share still gaining at +40% growth; near-full marks.
Financial Strength
Parent lightly levered with an IG curve; consolidated funding stack and rising net debt ($4.7B → $6.4B+) cost points.
Earnings & Cash-Flow Quality
The float mirage: adjusted FCF $158M in H1 2026; provisions +95%; honestly disclosed, currently poor.
Management & Governance
Planned founder succession, single class, cash-settled expensed retention pay, candid letters.
Accounting & Red Flags
No tricks found — the flag is structural: cohort seasoning opacity inside a book growing 62%/yr.
🚩 Earnings quality is the weak pillar (7/15): credit provisions +95% and thin adjusted FCF under the float — honestly disclosed, but the book has not seasoned yet.
Growth & Catalysts
+45% revenue, Q4 capacity test, Mexico license binary ahead.
Valuation & Margin of Safety
21% discount to the range midpoint but ~0–5% to the DCF; downside case is ~35% under the price.
DCF ≈ $1,603 on adjusted/owner FCF only (WACC 11%; sensitivity $1,530–$1,641; Gordon $1,416) which fights the $1,700–$2,150 multiples range — at 12% WACC the DCF is $1,530, the price at scoring to the dollar. Forward P/E ~27–30× is roughly 50% below MELI's own 5-year forward norm — the cheapest forward multiple of its modern era.
Technical Setup
Below every MA into a new 52-week low — partly redeemed by capitulation volume and the intact golden-cross structure.
Daily closes, trailing year · — price · — 50-day · - - 200-day
Financials
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Diluted EPS | Cash | Total assets | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 ended 2020-12-31 | $3.97B | $1.71B | $127.7M | -$707,000 | $1.18B | $935.5M | $-0.08 | $1.86B | $6.53B | $1.65B |
| FY2021 ended 2021-12-31 | $7.07B | $3.01B | $440.7M | $83.3M | $965.0M | $392.1M | $1.67 | $2.58B | $10.10B | $1.53B |
| FY2022 ended 2022-12-31 | $10.54B | $5.16B | $1.03B | $482.0M | $2.94B | $2.49B | $9.53 | $1.91B | $13.74B | $1.83B |
| FY2023 ended 2023-12-31 | $10.49B | $7.21B | $1.82B | $987.0M | $5.14B | $4.63B | $19.46 | $2.56B | $17.65B | $3.07B |
| FY2024 ended 2024-12-31 | $15.14B | $9.58B | $2.63B | $1.91B | $7.92B | $7.06B | $37.69 | $2.64B | $25.20B | $4.35B |
| FY2025 ended 2025-12-31 | $20.34B | $12.86B | $3.20B | $2.00B | $12.12B | $10.77B | $39.40 | $3.67B | $42.67B | $6.75B |
As reported in SEC filings (EDGAR company facts), latest restated figures.
Summary & Action Plan
Latin America's defining commerce + fintech ecosystem, derated to the cheapest forward multiple of its modern era. Top of the Mixed band (68) — the scoreboard's best business-quality story after Alphabet, held back by earnings quality and a thin margin of safety.